2010 China Macro Economic Analysis and Forecast Report

Jun.12th,2010       Visited:      Font Size: Big   Medium   Small

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[Contents and outline of the report]

    Table of Contents
    Part 1 Review
    Chapter 1 2009 Analysis of the overall situation of macro economy
    1.1 Domestic consumption quickly rebounds
    1.2 Fixed assets investment maintains a relatively fast growth
    1.3 2009 National employment situation remains steady on the whole
    1.4 The total import and export volume and price tends to decline on the whole
    1.5 The overall operational characteristics of macro economy
    1.5.1 Releverage of currency
    1.5.2 Unbalance of the growth structure
    Chapter 2 Data analysis of macro economy related indicator
    2.1 GDP and industry production
    2.2 2009 Growth analysis
    Chapter 3 Ultra-expected rebounding China macro economy in 2009 and its property
    3.1 10 phenomenons of ultra expected rebound
    3.2 9 characteristics of ultra expected rebound and related problems

    Part 2
    Analysis of the current situation of Macro economic operation
    Chapter 1 Global economic operational status and analysis
    1.1 Global economic operational status and evaluation
    1.2 Analysis of the current development situation of international major economies
    1.2.1 The U.S.
    1.2.2 European Union
    1.2.3 Japan
    Chapter 2 2010 Analysis of the operational status of China macro economy
    2.1 Macro economic operational data, Jan.-Feb., 2010
    2.1.1 Apparent core data
    2.1.2 Indirect verification data
    2.2 Major macroeconomic control policy, Jan.-Feb., 2010
    2.2.1 Major macroeconomic control policy in Jan.
    2.2.2 Major macroeconomic control policy and event in Feb.
    2.3 Analysis of the operational status of macroeconomy, Jan.-Feb., 2010
    2.3.1 Industry growth rate hits limit up, foreign trade has been resumed
    2.3.2 The growth rate of power generation industry parallels to that of the industry sector, the PMI values of both declined
    2.3.3 Various commodity prices continue to increase, inflation becomes more and more severe
    2.3.4 The economic structure heads back to its old pattern, more threats may cause harm in the future

    Part 3 Macroeconomic forecast and analysis
    Chapter 1 Future trend analysis of global macroeconomy
    1.1 2010 Global economy tends to recovery
    1.2 Economic development situation and trend analysis of the U.S.
    1.2.1 2010 The inverted "V"-shaped recovery of the U.S. economy
    1.2.2 Private investment resumes growth, consumption sector enjoys a slow growth under a difficult situation
    1.2.3 Consumption sector enjoys a slow growth under a difficult situation
    1.2.4 Private investment will rebound driven by re-stocking and residential Investment
    1.2.5 Unemployment rate will remain high in 2010
    1.2.6 The deflationary pressure is bigger than the inflationary pressure in the U.S.
    1.2.7 Variations of financial and monetary policies
    1.2.8 The U.S. dollar will remain weak in short term with a bullish trend in the mid and late 2010
    1.3 Economic development situation and trend analysis of the EU
    1.3.1 Financial deficit and government debt have become increasingly serious
    1.3.2 The EU may be the first to withdraw from the quantitative easing monetary policy
    1.4 Economic development situation and trend of Japan
    1.5 Future trend analysis of global economy
    Chapter 2 2010 Second quarter forecast
    2.1 The economic sentiment rebounds
    2.1.1 The economy resumes to the prosperity high level in minor cycle
    2.1.2 Performance differs from investment subjects
    2.2 Inflationary pressure grows bigger in the second quarter
    2.3 Economic development trend in the second quarter
    2.3.1 Economic development trend
    2.3.2 Policy trend
    2.4 Macro policy trend analysis in the second quarter
    Chapter 3 2010 Overall forecast and analysis of macroeconomy
    3.1 2010 New driving force on the operational status of macroeconomy
    3.1.1 Stable growth is the foundation for structural adjustment, and the basic pattern for stable growth will not be changed by structural adjustment
    3.1.2 The domestic residential consumption demand expansion is the key for structural adjustment
    3.1.3 Carry out structuarl adjustment and guarantee high efficiency to avoid " Latin America trap "
    3.1.4 The inflation expectation tends to rise while monetary policy tends to tighten under a stable status
    3.1.5 2010 China industry benefit is expected to rise steadily
    3.2 Import and export trend analysis
    3.2.1 Export characteristics: The export commodities structure will be changed comparing to 2009
    3.2.2 Export may slightly recover
    3.2.3 Import growth rate rebounds steadily
    3.2.4 The International trade environment and the growing space are not favorable to another rise of China export market
    3.3 Performance differs from investment subjects
    3.3.1 The investment growth is expected to maintain at a high level
    3.3.2 Private investment becomes the important grasp
    3.3.3 Real-estate investment is expected to maintain a steady growth
    3.3.4 The growth rate of manufacturing industry investment may decline
    3.3 The consumption maintains a steady growth
    3.3.1 Some short term factors will boost the consumption growth
    3,3,2 Long term factors will drive China consumption into a rapid development period
    3.4 Forecast and analysis of other macro indicators
    3.4.1 A moderate inflation is coming
    3.4.2 The recovery of demand causes a rise in CPI
    3.4.3 Lose monetary policy is the propellant
    3.4.4 The surging price in bulk stocks gradually pass to domestic market
    3.4.5 The influence of tail-raising factor has turned from negative to positive, and the price mechanism has pushed forward the new-price rising factor
    3.4.6 The RMB rebounds slightly
    3.5 Macro policy trend analysis
    3.5.1 Multi-polar objective has been the principal line of 2010's policy
    3.5.2 Fiscal policy
    3.5.3 Monetary policy
    3.5.4 Generalized preferential regional economic policy
    3.5.5 Differentiated industrial policy
    3.5.6 Uncertainties facing the policy